Should you watch public television without pledging?...Exceed the posted speed l
imit?...Hop a subway turnstile without paying? These questions illustrate the so
-called "prisoner's dilemma, " a social puzzle that we all face every day. Thoug
h the answers may seem simple, their profound implications make the prisoner's d
ilemma one of the great unifying concepts of science, an idea that has influence
d leaders across the political spectrum and informed our views of conflicts rang
ing from the Cuban missile crisis to the Persian Gulf War. Watching players bluf
f in a poker game inspired John von Neumann--father of the modern computer and o
ne of the sharpest minds of the century--to construct game theory, a mathematica
l study of conflict and deception. Game theory was readily embraced at the RAND
Corporation, the archetypical think tank charged with formulating military strat
egy for the atomic age, and in 1950 two RAND scientists made a momentous discove
ry. Called the "prisoner's dilemma, " it is a disturbing and mind-bending game w
here two or more people may betray the common good for individual gain. Introduc
ed shortly after the Soviet Union acquired the atomic bomb, the prisoner's dilem
ma quickly became a popular allegory of the nuclear arms race. Intellectuals suc
h as von Neumann and Bertrand Russell joined military and political leaders in r
allying to the "preventive war" movement, which advocated a nuclear first strike
against the Soviet Union. Though the Truman administration rejected preventive
war the United States entered into an arms race with the Soviets and game theory
developed into a controversial tool of public policy--alternately accused of ju
stifying arms races and touted as th only hope of preventing them. A masterful w
ork of science writing, Prisoner's Dilemma weaves together a biography of the br
illiant and tragic von Neumann, a history of pivotal phases of the cold war, and
an investigation of game theory's far-reaching influence on public policy t
